🔗 Share this article A Forecasting Platform User Earned $Nearly Half a Million on Bets Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor made nearly half a million dollars by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was made public, raising questions about potential gains made from inside knowledge of the event. Market Movement in Wagers Wagers on Polymarket, a crypto-powered platform, that Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office by the close of the month surged in the hours before Donald Trump declared on Saturday that the president had been taken into custody. A particular user, which became a member last month and placed four wagers, all on Venezuela, made more than $436,000 from a initial bet of $32,537. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The user had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Market Signals Before News Break Trading information shows that traders estimated the likelihood of the president's removal at just under 7% in the midday period of Friday, January 2nd. However these probabilities had jumped to eleven percent by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the early hours of January 3rd, suggesting a sudden change in betting activity right before the public announcement was made. "That trade has all the characteristics of a bet based on inside information," said an industry expert. A handful of other individuals also earned tens of thousands of dollars from predicting the capture. Political Attention Intensifies Some lawmakers are starting to take note. A bill introduced on Monday aims to prohibit federal workers from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a bet. The Prediction Market Landscape Prediction markets have grown significantly in the past few years, with users able to predict everything from sports outcomes to politics. This sector faced scrutiny under the Biden administration. Yet it has received a warmer welcome during the current presidency. Trading on insider information is against the law in the traditional financial markets, but there are less oversight in the forecasting space. A spokesperson for Kalshi said their site "strictly forbids trading on insider information of any form."